CA District Pinnacles Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

187.65 – 235.1

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

232 – 266

Prediction correct · off by 37.6 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 409.6 ±11.1

581Blazing Bulldogs

Season APEX 347Event APEX 143.42Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10252Mecha Lions

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 31.76Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7413Plus Ultra

Season APEX 11.7Event APEX 12.47Rank 28Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 479.2 ±11.1

6059System Overload Robotics

Season APEX 70.4Event APEX 31.76Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3045Gear Gremlins

Season APEX 355.6Event APEX 161.29Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2643Dark Matter

Season APEX 53.2Event APEX 42.05Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 581, 10252, 7413

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 581, 10252, 7413

Auto

23.1 12%

Teleop

113.0 61%

Endgame

50.3 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6059, 3045, 2643

/ 100 compat

Projected

235.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6059, 3045, 2643

Auto

54.8 24%

Teleop

125.1 54%

Endgame

53.0 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.27 · Blue 1.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score187.6pts

Blue projected score235.1pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -47.4
Score range: 155–268
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 498 vs event baseline 182.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

409.6Season APEX479.2

23.1Auto54.8

113Teleop125.1

50.3Endgame53

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	73
teleop	116	154
endgame	43	39
foul	5	0
total	232	266

Result

Final score

232 – 266

Prediction correct · off by 37.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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