CA District Pinnacles Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

127.99 – 17.35

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

133 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 15.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 276.8 ±11.6

10252Mecha Lions

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 22.37Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5104BreakerBots

Season APEX 155.5Event APEX 96.55Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6059System Overload Robotics

Season APEX 70.4Event APEX 9.07Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 171.5 ±12.2

11247Alisal High School Robotics Team

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX 4.65Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7413Plus Ultra

Season APEX 11.7Event APEX 7.7Rank 28Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10339BrainShift

Season APEX 104.3Event APEX 5Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10252, 5104, 6059

/ 100 compat

Projected

128 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10252, 5104, 6059

Auto

18.6 15%

Teleop

75.4 60%

Endgame

31.4 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11247, 7413, 10339

/ 100 compat

Projected

17.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 11247, 7413, 10339

Auto

18.0 94%

Teleop

3.2 17%

Endgame

-2.1 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.22 · Blue 0.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score128pts

Blue projected score17.4pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 110.6
Score range: -21–166
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 177 vs event baseline 208.6.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

276.8Season APEX171.5

18.6Auto18

75.4Teleop3.2

31.4Endgame-2.1

23Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	10
teleop	74	13
endgame	37	11
foul	0	10
total	133	44

Result

Final score

133 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 15.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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