CA District Pinnacles Event presented by Apple

Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

466.55 – 388.94

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

514 – 486

Prediction correct · off by 72.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 734.9 ±9.9

4171BayBots

Season APEX 54.2Event APEX 2.33Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

604Quixilver

Season APEX 333.7Event APEX 261.43Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

581Blazing Bulldogs

Season APEX 347Event APEX 202.79Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 677.3 ±9.9

2813Gear Heads

Season APEX 275.8Event APEX 201.14Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4255Robodores

Season APEX 45.9Event APEX 20.91Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3045Gear Gremlins

Season APEX 355.6Event APEX 166.89Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4171, 604, 581

/ 100 compat

Projected

466.6 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4171, 604, 581

Auto

85.4 19%

Teleop

271.9 59%

Endgame

103.5 22%

Strengths

· 604 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2813, 4255, 3045

/ 100 compat

Projected

388.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2813, 4255, 3045

Auto

72.7 20%

Teleop

213.2 57%

Endgame

85.0 23%

Strengths

· 2813 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.13 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score466.6pts

Blue projected score388.9pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 77.6
Score range: 352–504
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1000 vs event baseline 204.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

734.9Season APEX677.3

85.4Auto72.7

271.9Teleop213.2

103.5Endgame85

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	125	86
teleop	254	254
endgame	120	141
foul	15	5
total	514	486

Result

Final score

514 – 486

Prediction correct · off by 72.3 pts

Match videos

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