CA District Pinnacles Event presented by Apple

Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

479.57 – 396.33

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

400 – 325

Prediction correct · off by 75.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 734.9 ±9.9

4171BayBots

Season APEX 54.2Event APEX 7.53Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

604Quixilver

Season APEX 333.7Event APEX 265.67Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

581Blazing Bulldogs

Season APEX 347Event APEX 206.37Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 677.3 ±9.9

2813Gear Heads

Season APEX 275.8Event APEX 203.13Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4255Robodores

Season APEX 45.9Event APEX 23.57Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3045Gear Gremlins

Season APEX 355.6Event APEX 169.63Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4171, 604, 581

/ 100 compat

Projected

479.6 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4171, 604, 581

Auto

84.9 18%

Teleop

288.5 61%

Endgame

102.3 22%

Strengths

· 604 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2813, 4255, 3045

/ 100 compat

Projected

396.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2813, 4255, 3045

Auto

72.5 19%

Teleop

216.7 58%

Endgame

87.0 23%

Strengths

· 2813 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.16 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score479.6pts

Blue projected score396.3pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 83.2
Score range: 360–516
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 725 vs event baseline 202.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

734.9Season APEX677.3

84.9Auto72.5

288.5Teleop216.7

102.3Endgame87

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	88	74
teleop	188	182
endgame	109	69
foul	15	0
total	400	325

Result

Final score

400 – 325

Prediction correct · off by 75.4 pts

Match videos

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