Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

119.35 – 171.76

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

116 – 81

Prediction missed · off by 47.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 275.2 ±11.7

4276Surf City Vikings

Season APEX 44.1Event APEX 57.1Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7042Poly Rabbotics

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 23.07Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7157μBotics

Season APEX 114Event APEX 39.18Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 381.9 ±10.4

2658Σ-Motion

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 30.26Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5137Iron Kodiaks

Season APEX 144.2Event APEX 76.8Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3408cyberCubs

Season APEX 135Event APEX 64.7Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4276, 7042, 7157

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4276, 7042, 7157

Auto

28.9 25%

Teleop

57.1 50%

Endgame

28.2 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2658, 5137, 3408

/ 100 compat

Projected

171.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2658, 5137, 3408

Auto

24.3 15%

Teleop

92.3 56%

Endgame

47.4 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.17 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score119.4pts

Blue projected score171.8pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -52.4
Score range: 87–204
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 197 vs event baseline 179.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

275.2Season APEX381.9

28.9Auto24.3

57.1Teleop92.3

28.2Endgame47.4

44Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	20
teleop	59	61
endgame	19	0
foul	15	0
total	116	81

Result

Final score

116 – 81

Prediction missed · off by 47.1 pts

Match videos

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