Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

325.48 – 278.15

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

225 – 175

Prediction correct · off by 101.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 552.6 ±9.3

4322Clockwork

Season APEX 220.5Event APEX 153.27Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10586Unearthed

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 4.5Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4201The Vitruvian Bots

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 167.71Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 535 ±9.8

5805SMbly Required

Season APEX 112.6Event APEX 55.44Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5199Robot Dolphins From Outer Space

Season APEX 275.7Event APEX 105.29Rank 4Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

115MVRT

Season APEX 146.7Event APEX 117.42Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4322, 10586, 4201

/ 100 compat

Projected

325.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4322, 10586, 4201

Auto

54.9 17%

Teleop

189.6 59%

Endgame

75.8 24%

Strengths

· 4201 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5805, 5199, 115

/ 100 compat

Projected

278.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5805, 5199, 115

Auto

52.9 20%

Teleop

159.2 59%

Endgame

56.9 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.87 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score325.5pts

Blue projected score278.2pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 47.3
Score range: 246–357
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 400 vs event baseline 178.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

552.6Season APEX535

54.9Auto52.9

189.6Teleop159.2

75.8Endgame56.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	31
teleop	108	115
endgame	32	29
foul	45	0
total	225	175

Result

Final score

225 – 175

Prediction correct · off by 101.8 pts

Match videos

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