Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

631.4 – 118.31

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

655 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 12.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 834 ±9.3

4414HighTide

Season APEX 418.9Event APEX 343.27Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3309Friarbots

Season APEX 90Event APEX 39.23Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3476Code Orange

A+

Season APEX 325.1Event APEX 248.9Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 275.2 ±11.7

4276Surf City Vikings

Season APEX 44.1Event APEX 57.52Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7042Poly Rabbotics

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 22.3Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7157μBotics

Season APEX 114Event APEX 38.49Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4414, 3309, 3476

/ 100 compat

Projected

631.4 pts

~2.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4414, 3309, 3476

Auto

128.7 21%

Teleop

337.0 54%

Endgame

157.8 25%

Strengths

· 4414 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4276, 7042, 7157

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.3 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4276, 7042, 7157

Auto

24.6 22%

Teleop

62.0 56%

Endgame

25.1 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.83 · Blue 0.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score631.4pts

Blue projected score118.3pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 513.1
Score range: 86–663
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 774 vs event baseline 176.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

834Season APEX275.2

128.7Auto24.6

337Teleop62

157.8Endgame25.1

0Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	155	50
teleop	357	29
endgame	143	40
foul	0	0
total	655	119

Result

Final score

655 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 12.1 pts

Match videos

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