Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

137.22 – 122.35

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

144 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 33.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 264.9 ±12.2

9271Cyber Porpoises

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 50.57Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6220The Golden Griffins

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 49.02Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5857Walnut Valley Robotics

Season APEX 67Event APEX 37.63Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 280.7 ±11.6

3952Troy Robotics

Season APEX 79Event APEX 58.43Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5474Clairemonster

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 64.42Rank 6Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8891Wild Raccoons

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX -0.5Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9271, 6220, 5857

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9271, 6220, 5857

Auto

17.2 13%

Teleop

82.4 62%

Endgame

33.5 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3952, 5474, 8891

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3952, 5474, 8891

Auto

26.2 22%

Teleop

62.6 52%

Endgame

32.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score137.2pts

Blue projected score122.4pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14.9
Score range: 90–169
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 206 vs event baseline 177.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

264.9Season APEX280.7

17.2Auto26.2

82.4Teleop62.6

33.5Endgame32

25Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	21
teleop	63	23
endgame	57	13
foul	0	5
total	144	62

Result

Final score

144 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 33.6 pts

Match videos

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