Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

268.95 – 172.55

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

315 – 125

Prediction correct · off by 46.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 535 ±9.8

5805SMbly Required

Season APEX 112.6Event APEX 52.53Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5199Robot Dolphins From Outer Space

Season APEX 275.7Event APEX 101.77Rank 4Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

115MVRT

Season APEX 146.7Event APEX 114.65Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 381.9 ±10.4

2658Σ-Motion

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 30.58Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5137Iron Kodiaks

Season APEX 144.2Event APEX 77.37Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3408cyberCubs

Season APEX 135Event APEX 64.6Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5805, 5199, 115

/ 100 compat

Projected

269 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5805, 5199, 115

Auto

49.2 19%

Teleop

156.1 59%

Endgame

60.4 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2658, 5137, 3408

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2658, 5137, 3408

Auto

24.4 15%

Teleop

96.8 61%

Endgame

38.7 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.2 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score269pts

Blue projected score172.6pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 96.4
Score range: 141–301
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 440 vs event baseline 176.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

535Season APEX381.9

49.2Auto24.4

156.1Teleop96.8

60.4Endgame38.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	70	27
teleop	168	61
endgame	47	37
foul	30	0
total	315	125

Result

Final score

315 – 125

Prediction correct · off by 46.8 pts

Match videos

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