Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

324.15 – 120.71

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

336 – 192

Prediction correct · off by 41.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 552.6 ±9.3

4322Clockwork

Season APEX 220.5Event APEX 153Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10586Unearthed

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 3.1Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4201The Vitruvian Bots

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 168.05Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 251.2 ±11.6

7447Rōnin Robotics

Season APEX 48.1Event APEX 29.21Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6695GalvaKnights

Season APEX 133Event APEX 52.15Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4141Monarch Robotics

Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 39.35Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4322, 10586, 4201

/ 100 compat

Projected

324.2 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4322, 10586, 4201

Auto

51.8 16%

Teleop

199.1 63%

Endgame

66.6 21%

Strengths

· 4201 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7447, 6695, 4141

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7447, 6695, 4141

Auto

22.9 18%

Teleop

75.3 60%

Endgame

26.3 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.44 · Blue 0.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score324.2pts

Blue projected score120.7pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 203.4
Score range: 89–356
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 528 vs event baseline 175.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

552.6Season APEX251.2

51.8Auto22.9

199.1Teleop75.3

66.6Endgame26.3

0Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	20
teleop	148	87
endgame	115	85
foul	0	0
total	336	192

Result

Final score

336 – 192

Prediction correct · off by 41.6 pts

Match videos

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