Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

143.56 – 122.06

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

42 – 92

Prediction missed · off by 65.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 280.7 ±11.6

3952Troy Robotics

Season APEX 79Event APEX 66.19Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5474Clairemonster

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 70.28Rank 6Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8891Wild Raccoons

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX 7.09Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 275.2 ±11.7

4276Surf City Vikings

Season APEX 44.1Event APEX 59.31Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7042Poly Rabbotics

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 24.08Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7157μBotics

Season APEX 114Event APEX 38.67Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3952, 5474, 8891

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3952, 5474, 8891

Auto

27.5 20%

Teleop

72.5 51%

Endgame

40.9 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4276, 7042, 7157

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4276, 7042, 7157

Auto

25.8 21%

Teleop

70.8 58%

Endgame

25.0 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score143.6pts

Blue projected score122.1pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 21.5
Score range: 90–176
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 134 vs event baseline 176.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

280.7Season APEX275.2

27.5Auto25.8

72.5Teleop70.8

40.9Endgame25

1Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	22
teleop	14	13
endgame	6	27
foul	0	30
total	42	92

Result

Final score

42 – 92

Prediction missed · off by 65.8 pts

Match videos

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