Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

615.26 – 140.71

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

692 – 123

Prediction correct · off by 47.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 834 ±9.3

4414HighTide

Season APEX 418.9Event APEX 338.31Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3309Friarbots

Season APEX 90Event APEX 32.96Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3476Code Orange

A+

Season APEX 325.1Event APEX 243.99Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 264.9 ±12.2

9271Cyber Porpoises

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 51.84Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6220The Golden Griffins

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 50.24Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5857Walnut Valley Robotics

Season APEX 67Event APEX 38.63Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4414, 3309, 3476

/ 100 compat

Projected

615.3 pts

~2.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4414, 3309, 3476

Auto

120.4 20%

Teleop

333.3 55%

Endgame

151.6 25%

Strengths

· 4414 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9271, 6220, 5857

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.7 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9271, 6220, 5857

Auto

17.7 13%

Teleop

87.0 65%

Endgame

30.1 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.83 · Blue 0.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score615.3pts

Blue projected score140.7pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 474.6
Score range: 110–646
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 815 vs event baseline 173.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

834Season APEX264.9

120.4Auto17.7

333.3Teleop87

151.6Endgame30.1

0Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	166	17
teleop	337	56
endgame	189	50
foul	0	0
total	692	123

Result

Final score

692 – 123

Prediction correct · off by 47.2 pts

Match videos

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