Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

291.19 – 248.01

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

357 – 332

Prediction correct · off by 74.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 552.6 ±9.3

4322Clockwork

Season APEX 220.5Event APEX 140.76Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10586Unearthed

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX -7.17Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4201The Vitruvian Bots

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 157.6Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 535 ±9.8

5199Robot Dolphins From Outer Space

Season APEX 275.7Event APEX 95.55Rank 4Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5805SMbly Required

Season APEX 112.6Event APEX 45.33Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

115MVRT

Season APEX 146.7Event APEX 107.13Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4322, 10586, 4201

/ 100 compat

Projected

291.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4322, 10586, 4201

Auto

49.0 18%

Teleop

164.8 59%

Endgame

65.2 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5199, 5805, 115

/ 100 compat

Projected

248 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5199, 5805, 115

Auto

44.2 18%

Teleop

144.5 60%

Endgame

54.1 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score291.2pts

Blue projected score248pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.2
Score range: 216–323
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 689 vs event baseline 180.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

552.6Season APEX535

49Auto44.2

164.8Teleop144.5

65.2Endgame54.1

4Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	49
teleop	176	199
endgame	138	84
foul	20	0
total	357	332

Result

Final score

357 – 332

Prediction correct · off by 74.9 pts

Match videos

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