Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

246.34 – 120.65

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

260 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 21 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 535 ±9.8

5199Robot Dolphins From Outer Space

Season APEX 275.7Event APEX 94.82Rank 4Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5805SMbly Required

Season APEX 112.6Event APEX 44.81Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

115MVRT

Season APEX 146.7Event APEX 106.71Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 275.2 ±11.7

7042Poly Rabbotics

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 24.26Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7157μBotics

Season APEX 114Event APEX 39.54Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4276Surf City Vikings

Season APEX 44.1Event APEX 56.85Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5199, 5805, 115

/ 100 compat

Projected

246.3 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5199, 5805, 115

Auto

45.9 19%

Teleop

145.1 60%

Endgame

49.5 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7042, 7157, 4276

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7042, 7157, 4276

Auto

28.7 25%

Teleop

58.2 51%

Endgame

27.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.31 · Blue 0.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score246.3pts

Blue projected score120.7pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 125.7
Score range: 89–278
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 409 vs event baseline 179.7.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

535Season APEX275.2

45.9Auto28.7

145.1Teleop58.2

49.5Endgame27.4

0Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	44
teleop	140	65
endgame	87	40
foul	0	0
total	260	149

Result

Final score

260 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 21 pts

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.