Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

639.45 – 312.8

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

602 – 161

Prediction correct · off by 94.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 834 ±9.3

4414HighTide

Season APEX 418.9Event APEX 345.66Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3309Friarbots

Season APEX 90Event APEX 42.01Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3476Code Orange

A+

Season APEX 325.1Event APEX 251.78Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 552.6 ±9.3

4322Clockwork

Season APEX 220.5Event APEX 148.47Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10586Unearthed

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 0.2Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4201The Vitruvian Bots

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 164.13Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4414, 3309, 3476

/ 100 compat

Projected

639.5 pts

~2.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4414, 3309, 3476

Auto

133.4 21%

Teleop

342.7 54%

Endgame

157.0 25%

Strengths

· 4414 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4322, 10586, 4201

/ 100 compat

Projected

312.8 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4322, 10586, 4201

Auto

53.1 18%

Teleop

177.9 59%

Endgame

69.8 23%

Strengths

· 4201 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.83 · Blue 0.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score639.5pts

Blue projected score312.8pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 326.7
Score range: 281–671
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 763 vs event baseline 177.3.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

834Season APEX552.6

133.4Auto53.1

342.7Teleop177.9

157Endgame69.8

0Consistency3

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	70	20
teleop	364	87
endgame	138	39
foul	30	15
total	602	161

Result

Final score

602 – 161

Prediction correct · off by 94.6 pts

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.