Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

263.39 – 140.32

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

129 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 84.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 535 ±9.8

5805SMbly Required

Season APEX 112.6Event APEX 50.6Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5199Robot Dolphins From Outer Space

Season APEX 275.7Event APEX 100.18Rank 4Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

115MVRT

Season APEX 146.7Event APEX 112.61Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 264.9 ±12.2

9271Cyber Porpoises

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 51.14Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6220The Golden Griffins

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 49.46Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5857Walnut Valley Robotics

Season APEX 67Event APEX 39.72Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5805, 5199, 115

/ 100 compat

Projected

263.4 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5805, 5199, 115

Auto

49.5 19%

Teleop

153.3 60%

Endgame

53.4 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9271, 6220, 5857

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9271, 6220, 5857

Auto

18.4 13%

Teleop

80.7 59%

Endgame

37.8 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.31 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score263.4pts

Blue projected score140.3pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 123.1
Score range: 108–295
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 234 vs event baseline 178.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

535Season APEX264.9

49.5Auto18.4

153.3Teleop80.7

53.4Endgame37.8

0Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	27
teleop	88	36
endgame	22	27
foul	0	15
total	129	105

Result

Final score

129 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 84.9 pts

Match videos

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