Qualification · Qualification 74

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

136.33 – 160.44

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

187 – 63

Prediction missed · off by 74.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 394 ±12.4

5199Robot Dolphins From Outer Space

Season APEX 275.7Event APEX 95.99Rank 4Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4919Team Ronin

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 7.02Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5857Walnut Valley Robotics

Season APEX 67Event APEX 33.32Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 191.6 ±12.1

4984Bullseye

Season APEX 42.5Event APEX 39.26Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3952Troy Robotics

Season APEX 79Event APEX 74.94Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4141Monarch Robotics

Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 46.24Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5199, 4919, 5857

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5199, 4919, 5857

Auto

36.4 27%

Teleop

57.1 42%

Endgame

42.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4984, 3952, 4141

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4984, 3952, 4141

Auto

27.1 17%

Teleop

83.2 53%

Endgame

47.4 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score136.3pts

Blue projected score160.4pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -24.1
Score range: 105–191
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 250 vs event baseline 174.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

394Season APEX191.6

36.4Auto27.1

57.1Teleop83.2

42.2Endgame47.4

20Consistency8

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	32
teleop	89	12
endgame	66	19
foul	15	0
total	187	63

Result

Final score

187 – 63

Prediction missed · off by 74.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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