Qualification · Qualification 73

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

306.23 – 170.17

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

366 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 56.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 514 ±9.8

7157μBotics

Season APEX 114Event APEX 32.73Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4201The Vitruvian Bots

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 163.03Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

115MVRT

Season APEX 146.7Event APEX 110.47Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 305.4 ±11.7

5137Iron Kodiaks

Season APEX 144.2Event APEX 80.11Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7042Poly Rabbotics

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 27.29Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4276Surf City Vikings

Season APEX 44.1Event APEX 62.77Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7157, 4201, 115

/ 100 compat

Projected

306.2 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7157, 4201, 115

Auto

43.8 15%

Teleop

194.4 66%

Endgame

56.3 19%

Strengths

· 4201 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5137, 7042, 4276

/ 100 compat

Projected

170.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5137, 7042, 4276

Auto

24.6 15%

Teleop

98.0 58%

Endgame

45.2 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.39 · Blue 0.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score306.2pts

Blue projected score170.2pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 136.1
Score range: 139–337
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 483 vs event baseline 173.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

514Season APEX305.4

43.8Auto24.6

194.4Teleop98

56.3Endgame45.2

0Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	32
teleop	209	50
endgame	125	20
foul	0	15
total	366	117

Result

Final score

366 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 56.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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