Qualification · Qualification 71

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

88.47 – 83.35

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

93 – 69

Prediction correct · off by 9.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 242.1 ±12.2

8891Wild Raccoons

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX 6.69Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5474Clairemonster

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 71.31Rank 6Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6072Triton Tech 6072

Season APEX 40.4Event APEX 10.47Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 226.5 ±14.9

5500Jaguars Robotics & ROVs

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 17.15Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5805SMbly Required

Season APEX 112.6Event APEX 55.29Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4619HawkBots

Season APEX 79.4Event APEX 10.91Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8891, 5474, 6072

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8891, 5474, 6072

Auto

7.7 9%

Teleop

51.8 57%

Endgame

30.8 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5500, 5805, 4619

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5500, 5805, 4619

Auto

20.2 23%

Teleop

43.8 49%

Endgame

24.9 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score88.5pts

Blue projected score83.4pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 5.1
Score range: 51–120
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 162 vs event baseline 175.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

242.1Season APEX226.5

7.7Auto20.2

51.8Teleop43.8

30.8Endgame24.9

1Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	17
teleop	36	39
endgame	42	13
foul	0	0
total	93	69

Result

Final score

93 – 69

Prediction correct · off by 9.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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