Qualification · Qualification 70

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

378.11 – 25.26

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

477 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 95.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 611.6 ±9.8

2658Σ-Motion

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 22.55Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4414HighTide

Season APEX 418.9Event APEX 331.25Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3309Friarbots

Season APEX 90Event APEX 24.31Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 150.2 ±13.3

6885The Pilots

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 3.11Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3020SMbld

Season APEX 52.8Event APEX 2.97Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

7447Rōnin Robotics

Season APEX 48.1Event APEX 19.18Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2658, 4414, 3309

/ 100 compat

Projected

378.1 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2658, 4414, 3309

Auto

74.0 20%

Teleop

198.2 54%

Endgame

95.6 26%

Strengths

· 4414 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6885, 3020, 7447

/ 100 compat

Projected

25.3 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6885, 3020, 7447

Auto

4.5 21%

Teleop

2.2 10%

Endgame

14.3 68%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.65 · Blue 0.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score378.1pts

Blue projected score25.3pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 352.9
Score range: -6–409
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 595 vs event baseline 174.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

611.6Season APEX150.2

74Auto4.5

198.2Teleop2.2

95.6Endgame14.3

0Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	109	36
teleop	256	61
endgame	112	11
foul	0	10
total	477	118

Result

Final score

477 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 95.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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