Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

140.32 – 186

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

34 – 205

Prediction correct · off by 62.7 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 191.2 ±15.3

3020SMbld

Season APEX 52.8Event APEX 108Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3295STEMdroids

Season APEX 54.8Event APEX 2.86Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9271Cyber Porpoises

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX -Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 468.7 ±11.2

5474Clairemonster

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 108Rank 6Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4919Team Ronin

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 16.86Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4201The Vitruvian Bots

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 61.14Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3020, 3295, 9271

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3020, 3295, 9271

Auto

16.6 12%

Teleop

84.2 60%

Endgame

39.6 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5474, 4919, 4201

/ 100 compat

Projected

186 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5474, 4919, 4201

Auto

14.6 8%

Teleop

122.0 66%

Endgame

49.4 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.35 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score140.3pts

Blue projected score186pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -45.7
Score range: 108–218
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 239 vs event baseline 176.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

191.2Season APEX468.7

7.7Auto14.6

69.4Teleop122

33.7Endgame49.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	33
teleop	0	117
endgame	10	55
foul	5	0
total	34	205

Result

Final score

34 – 205

Prediction correct · off by 62.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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