Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

263.46 – 219.31

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

418 – 230

Prediction correct · off by 82.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 457.4 ±12.4

9730Metal Maniacs

Season APEX 60.9Event APEX 24.56Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3476Code Orange

A+

Season APEX 325.1Event APEX 232.62Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5514MavBots

Season APEX 71.4Event APEX 6.28Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 347.1 ±14

10336BHA Tigers

Season APEX 43Event APEX 16.92Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

4322Clockwork

Season APEX 220.5Event APEX 151.56Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9271Cyber Porpoises

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 50.83Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9730, 3476, 5514

/ 100 compat

Projected

263.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9730, 3476, 5514

Auto

48.3 19%

Teleop

138.7 55%

Endgame

63.4 25%

Strengths

· 3476 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10336, 4322, 9271

/ 100 compat

Projected

219.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10336, 4322, 9271

Auto

47.2 22%

Teleop

129.5 61%

Endgame

36.9 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.93 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score263.5pts

Blue projected score219.3pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 44.1
Score range: 188–294
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 648 vs event baseline 171.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

457.4Season APEX347.1

48.3Auto47.2

138.7Teleop129.5

63.4Endgame36.9

42Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	98	37
teleop	194	156
endgame	96	37
foul	30	0
total	418	230

Result

Final score

418 – 230

Prediction correct · off by 82.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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