Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

354.78 – 52.08

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

185 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 87.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 599.1 ±9.9

5199Robot Dolphins From Outer Space

Season APEX 275.7Event APEX 112.87Rank 4Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4141Monarch Robotics

Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 61.1Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4201The Vitruvian Bots

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 180.81Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 235.2 ±11.7

10586Unearthed

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 5.86Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7157μBotics

Season APEX 114Event APEX 36.64Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8521CyberLions

Season APEX 42.4Event APEX 9.58Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5199, 4141, 4201

/ 100 compat

Projected

354.8 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5199, 4141, 4201

Auto

61.5 17%

Teleop

198.0 56%

Endgame

92.1 26%

Strengths

· 4201 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10586, 7157, 8521

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.1 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10586, 7157, 8521

Auto

27.4 47%

Teleop

26.2 45%

Endgame

4.8 8%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.72 · Blue 0.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score354.8pts

Blue projected score52.1pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 302.7
Score range: 21–386
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 232 vs event baseline 172.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

599.1Season APEX235.2

61.5Auto27.4

198Teleop26.2

92.1Endgame4.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	21
teleop	108	26
endgame	15	0
foul	15	0
total	185	47

Result

Final score

185 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 87.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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