Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

138.4 – 167.54

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

263 – 153

Prediction missed · off by 69.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 275.2 ±12.8

5857Walnut Valley Robotics

Season APEX 67Event APEX 22.9Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4276Surf City Vikings

Season APEX 44.1Event APEX 55.67Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5474Clairemonster

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 59.83Rank 6Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 266.8 ±14.4

6695GalvaKnights

Season APEX 133Event APEX 55.24Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3295STEMdroids

Season APEX 54.8Event APEX 36.68Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

3952Troy Robotics

Season APEX 79Event APEX 75.62Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5857, 4276, 5474

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5857, 4276, 5474

Auto

14.1 11%

Teleop

81.6 63%

Endgame

33.6 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6695, 3295, 3952

/ 100 compat

Projected

167.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6695, 3295, 3952

Auto

33.0 20%

Teleop

99.4 60%

Endgame

32.4 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.36 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score138.4pts

Blue projected score167.5pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -29.1
Score range: 107–199
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 416 vs event baseline 172.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

275.2Season APEX266.8

14.1Auto33

81.6Teleop99.4

33.6Endgame32.4

52Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	22
teleop	153	104
endgame	88	27
foul	0	0
total	263	153

Result

Final score

263 – 153

Prediction missed · off by 69.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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