Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

179.59 – 102.09

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

313 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 76.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 384.4 ±11.2

4322Clockwork

Season APEX 220.5Event APEX 137.84Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4919Team Ronin

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX -4.64Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5805SMbly Required

Season APEX 112.6Event APEX 46.39Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 243.1 ±12.8

8521CyberLions

Season APEX 42.4Event APEX 15.01Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5835Sage Hill Robotics

Season APEX 56.5Event APEX 1.3Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

5137Iron Kodiaks

Season APEX 144.2Event APEX 85.78Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4322, 4919, 5805

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4322, 4919, 5805

Auto

28.7 16%

Teleop

104.4 58%

Endgame

47.9 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8521, 5835, 5137

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8521, 5835, 5137

Auto

20.4 19%

Teleop

51.1 49%

Endgame

33.3 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.03 · Blue 1.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score179.6pts

Blue projected score102.1pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 77.5
Score range: 71–211
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 395 vs event baseline 171.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

384.4Season APEX243.1

28.7Auto20.4

104.4Teleop51.1

47.9Endgame33.3

0Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	14
teleop	174	34
endgame	74	34
foul	0	0
total	313	82

Result

Final score

313 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 76.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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