Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

61.95 – 147.37

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

84 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 11.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 257.4 ±11

2658Σ-Motion

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 23.22Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7042Poly Rabbotics

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 30.98Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8891Wild Raccoons

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX 7.75Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 224.2 ±14.9

115MVRT

Season APEX 146.7Event APEX 111.19Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10336BHA Tigers

Season APEX 43Event APEX 17.42Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

5500Jaguars Robotics & ROVs

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 18.76Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2658, 7042, 8891

/ 100 compat

Projected

62 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2658, 7042, 8891

Auto

21.7 36%

Teleop

22.7 38%

Endgame

15.7 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 115, 10336, 5500

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.4 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 115, 10336, 5500

Auto

35.7 24%

Teleop

84.4 58%

Endgame

26.1 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.97 · Blue 2.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score62pts

Blue projected score147.4pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -85.4
Score range: 31–178
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 233 vs event baseline 172.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

257.4Season APEX224.2

21.7Auto35.7

22.7Teleop84.4

15.7Endgame26.1

8Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	22
teleop	38	83
endgame	28	29
foul	0	15
total	84	149

Result

Final score

84 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 11.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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