Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

103.59 – 192.12

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

184 – 403

Prediction correct · off by 145.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 127 ±13.3

6072Triton Tech 6072

Season APEX 40.4Event APEX 14.22Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4276Surf City Vikings

Season APEX 44.1Event APEX 53.91Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4984Bullseye

Season APEX 42.5Event APEX 35.46Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 454.7 ±9.8

4322Clockwork

Season APEX 220.5Event APEX 120.43Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5137Iron Kodiaks

Season APEX 144.2Event APEX 67.7Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3309Friarbots

Season APEX 90Event APEX 3.99Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6072, 4276, 4984

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6072, 4276, 4984

Auto

10.8 11%

Teleop

60.4 60%

Endgame

29.0 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4322, 5137, 3309

/ 100 compat

Projected

192.1 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4322, 5137, 3309

Auto

30.6 16%

Teleop

103.3 55%

Endgame

53.1 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.96 · Blue 2.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score103.6pts

Blue projected score192.1pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -88.5
Score range: 74–222
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 587 vs event baseline 164.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

127Season APEX454.7

10.8Auto30.6

60.4Teleop103.3

29Endgame53.1

13Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	64
teleop	108	240
endgame	59	99
foul	0	0
total	184	403

Result

Final score

184 – 403

Prediction correct · off by 145.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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