Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

99.57 – 150.39

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

79 – 210

Prediction correct · off by 40.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 210.6 ±12.2

3020SMbld

Season APEX 52.8Event APEX 6.3Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3952Troy Robotics

Season APEX 79Event APEX 81.08Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10586Unearthed

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 12.19Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 279.6 ±12.2

115MVRT

Season APEX 146.7Event APEX 108.14Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6885The Pilots

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 7.18Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9271Cyber Porpoises

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 35.07Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3020, 3952, 10586

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3020, 3952, 10586

Auto

25.7 26%

Teleop

53.0 55%

Endgame

18.3 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 115, 6885, 9271

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 115, 6885, 9271

Auto

16.7 11%

Teleop

112.5 75%

Endgame

19.9 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.23 · Blue 1.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score99.6pts

Blue projected score150.4pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -50.8
Score range: 70–180
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 289 vs event baseline 165.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

210.6Season APEX279.6

25.7Auto16.7

53Teleop112.5

18.3Endgame19.9

0Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	30
teleop	21	101
endgame	34	49
foul	0	30
total	79	210

Result

Final score

79 – 210

Prediction correct · off by 40.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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