Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

76.8 – 109.64

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

181 – 60

Prediction missed · off by 76.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 272.7 ±13.9

10336BHA Tigers

Season APEX 43Event APEX 11.7Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

5805SMbly Required

Season APEX 112.6Event APEX 38.87Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7042Poly Rabbotics

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 26.23Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 220.8 ±12.8

4919Team Ronin

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 3.17Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3408cyberCubs

Season APEX 135Event APEX 80.46Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5500Jaguars Robotics & ROVs

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 26.01Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10336, 5805, 7042

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10336, 5805, 7042

Auto

39.3 52%

Teleop

34.7 46%

Endgame

2.2 3%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4919, 3408, 5500

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4919, 3408, 5500

Auto

18.2 18%

Teleop

53.8 53%

Endgame

29.9 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.29 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score76.8pts

Blue projected score109.6pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -32.8
Score range: 47–140
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 241 vs event baseline 166.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

272.7Season APEX220.8

39.3Auto18.2

34.7Teleop53.8

2.2Endgame29.9

6Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	14
teleop	106	15
endgame	47	31
foul	0	0
total	181	60

Result

Final score

181 – 60

Prediction missed · off by 76.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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