Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

53.46 – 66.77

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

49 – 43

Prediction missed · off by 14.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 242.2 ±12.8

5835Sage Hill Robotics

Season APEX 56.5Event APEX 4.57Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

5514MavBots

Season APEX 71.4Event APEX 0.7Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6220The Golden Griffins

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 48.19Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 140.9 ±13.3

8521CyberLions

Season APEX 42.4Event APEX 19.08Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9730Metal Maniacs

Season APEX 60.9Event APEX 30.64Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8891Wild Raccoons

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX 17.05Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5835, 5514, 6220

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5835, 5514, 6220

Auto

6.1 11%

Teleop

31.0 58%

Endgame

16.0 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8521, 9730, 8891

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8521, 9730, 8891

Auto

20.4 36%

Teleop

13.5 24%

Endgame

23.3 41%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score53.5pts

Blue projected score66.8pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -13.3
Score range: 23–97
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 92 vs event baseline 168.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

242.2Season APEX140.9

6.1Auto20.4

31Teleop13.5

16Endgame23.3

95Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	16
teleop	19	19
endgame	2	3
foul	0	5
total	49	43

Result

Final score

49 – 43

Prediction missed · off by 14.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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