Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

134.9 – 426.23

3%97%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

60 – 167

Prediction correct · off by 167.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 326.3 ±13.9

4619HawkBots

Season APEX 79.4Event APEX 22.87Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 76

5137Iron Kodiaks

Season APEX 144.2Event APEX 76.85Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2658Σ-Motion

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 35.18Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 690.8 ±9.3

3309Friarbots

Season APEX 90Event APEX 33.35Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5199Robot Dolphins From Outer Space

Season APEX 275.7Event APEX 145.83Rank 4Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3476Code Orange

A+

Season APEX 325.1Event APEX 247.05Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4619, 5137, 2658

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.9 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4619, 5137, 2658

Auto

14.0 10%

Teleop

79.1 57%

Endgame

44.8 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3309, 5199, 3476

/ 100 compat

Projected

426.2 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3309, 5199, 3476

Auto

84.6 20%

Teleop

233.5 55%

Endgame

106.4 25%

Strengths

· 3476 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.64 · Blue 2.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score134.9pts

Blue projected score426.2pts

Red win probability3%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -291.3
Score range: 105–456
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 227 vs event baseline 169.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

326.3Season APEX690.8

14Auto84.6

79.1Teleop233.5

44.8Endgame106.4

0Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	65
teleop	23	41
endgame	15	61
foul	0	0
total	60	167

Result

Final score

60 – 167

Prediction correct · off by 167.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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