Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

413.11 – 78.07

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

404 – 141

Prediction correct · off by 36 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 611.9 ±10.5

7157μBotics

Season APEX 114Event APEX 34.62Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3952Troy Robotics

Season APEX 79Event APEX 74.24Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4414HighTide

Season APEX 418.9Event APEX 304.25Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 174.2 ±15.3

6885The Pilots

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 1.8Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4141Monarch Robotics

Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 58.79Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3295STEMdroids

Season APEX 54.8Event APEX 17.48Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7157, 3952, 4414

/ 100 compat

Projected

413.1 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 7157, 3952, 4414

Auto

86.4 22%

Teleop

223.3 56%

Endgame

87.4 22%

Strengths

· 4414 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6885, 4141, 3295

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.1 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6885, 4141, 3295

Auto

10.9 13%

Teleop

49.8 61%

Endgame

20.6 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.68 · Blue 0.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score413.1pts

Blue projected score78.1pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 335
Score range: 48–443
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 545 vs event baseline 167.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

611.9Season APEX174.2

86.4Auto10.9

223.3Teleop49.8

87.4Endgame20.6

50Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	80	14
teleop	220	74
endgame	104	53
foul	0	0
total	404	141

Result

Final score

404 – 141

Prediction correct · off by 36 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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