Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

267.43 – 82.07

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

243 – 68

Prediction correct · off by 19.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 441.1 ±11.2

3020SMbld

Season APEX 52.8Event APEX 14.37Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4201The Vitruvian Bots

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 172.7Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3408cyberCubs

Season APEX 135Event APEX 80.36Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 220 ±12.8

5805SMbly Required

Season APEX 112.6Event APEX 38.02Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6072Triton Tech 6072

Season APEX 40.4Event APEX 11.23Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 95

5857Walnut Valley Robotics

Season APEX 67Event APEX 32.82Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3020, 4201, 3408

/ 100 compat

Projected

267.4 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3020, 4201, 3408

Auto

29.1 12%

Teleop

145.6 59%

Endgame

73.2 30%

Strengths

· 4201 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5805, 6072, 5857

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.1 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5805, 6072, 5857

Auto

11.6 17%

Teleop

38.6 58%

Endgame

16.1 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.53 · Blue 0.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score267.4pts

Blue projected score82.1pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 185.4
Score range: 52–297
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 311 vs event baseline 167.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

441.1Season APEX220

29.1Auto11.6

145.6Teleop38.6

73.2Endgame16.1

0Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	12
teleop	149	41
endgame	30	15
foul	30	0
total	243	68

Result

Final score

243 – 68

Prediction correct · off by 19.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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