Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

85.38 – 55.09

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

137 – 173

Prediction missed · off by 84.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 209.7 ±12.8

9730Metal Maniacs

Season APEX 60.9Event APEX 23.07Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6220The Golden Griffins

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 39.08Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5500Jaguars Robotics & ROVs

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 23.23Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 134.6 ±13.3

7447Rōnin Robotics

Season APEX 48.1Event APEX 9.37Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4276Surf City Vikings

Season APEX 44.1Event APEX 39.94Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8521CyberLions

Season APEX 42.4Event APEX 5.78Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9730, 6220, 5500

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9730, 6220, 5500

Auto

11.2 15%

Teleop

45.6 60%

Endgame

18.9 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7447, 4276, 8521

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7447, 4276, 8521

Auto

15.0 29%

Teleop

16.4 32%

Endgame

19.5 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.78 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score85.4pts

Blue projected score55.1pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 30.3
Score range: 25–115
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 310 vs event baseline 167.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

209.7Season APEX134.6

11.2Auto15

45.6Teleop16.4

18.9Endgame19.5

68Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	43
teleop	62	90
endgame	54	40
foul	0	0
total	137	173

Result

Final score

137 – 173

Prediction missed · off by 84.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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