Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

31.07 – 183.89

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

36 – 243

Prediction correct · off by 32 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 167.7 ±12.2

4919Team Ronin

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 13.44Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10586Unearthed

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 4.3Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8891Wild Raccoons

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX 13.33Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 501.7 ±9.8

5474Clairemonster

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 46.52Rank 6Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4322Clockwork

Season APEX 220.5Event APEX 113.11Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7042Poly Rabbotics

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 24.26Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4919, 10586, 8891

/ 100 compat

Projected

31.1 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4919, 10586, 8891

Auto

27.6 68%

Teleop

0.7 2%

Endgame

12.0 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5474, 4322, 7042

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5474, 4322, 7042

Auto

35.0 19%

Teleop

97.6 53%

Endgame

50.6 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.69 · Blue 2.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score31.1pts

Blue projected score183.9pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -152.8
Score range: 1–214
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 279 vs event baseline 167.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

167.7Season APEX501.7

27.6Auto35

0.7Teleop97.6

12Endgame50.6

0Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	20
teleop	15	190
endgame	10	33
foul	0	0
total	36	243

Result

Final score

36 – 243

Prediction correct · off by 32 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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