Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

116.53 – 170.6

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

277 – 38

Prediction missed · off by 146.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 373.5 ±16.3

3295STEMdroids

Season APEX 54.8Event APEX -3.19Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

5199Robot Dolphins From Outer Space

Season APEX 275.7Event APEX 127.38Rank 4Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10336BHA Tigers

Season APEX 43Event APEX -7.66Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 258.5 ±12.8

6072Triton Tech 6072

Season APEX 40.4Event APEX 28.8Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 95

115MVRT

Season APEX 146.7Event APEX 118.01Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5514MavBots

Season APEX 71.4Event APEX 23.79Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3295, 5199, 10336

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3295, 5199, 10336

Auto

60.8 51%

Teleop

47.9 40%

Endgame

10.6 9%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6072, 115, 5514

/ 100 compat

Projected

170.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6072, 115, 5514

Auto

8.2 5%

Teleop

121.8 76%

Endgame

29.9 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.31 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score116.5pts

Blue projected score170.6pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -54.1
Score range: 87–201
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 315 vs event baseline 167.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

373.5Season APEX258.5

60.8Auto8.2

47.9Teleop121.8

10.6Endgame29.9

38Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	15
teleop	139	9
endgame	75	14
foul	0	0
total	277	38

Result

Final score

277 – 38

Prediction missed · off by 146.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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