Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

59.98 – 258.36

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

78 – 345

Prediction correct · off by 52.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 210.9 ±12.2

7042Poly Rabbotics

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 12.7Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4984Bullseye

Season APEX 42.5Event APEX 27.93Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4919Team Ronin

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 19.35Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 435 ±10.5

4201The Vitruvian Bots

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 162.2Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2658Σ-Motion

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 23.51Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3952Troy Robotics

Season APEX 79Event APEX 72.65Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7042, 4984, 4919

/ 100 compat

Projected

60 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 7042, 4984, 4919

Auto

24.5 36%

Teleop

17.8 26%

Endgame

24.9 37%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4201, 2658, 3952

/ 100 compat

Projected

258.4 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4201, 2658, 3952

Auto

44.3 18%

Teleop

141.1 57%

Endgame

61.8 25%

Strengths

· 4201 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.66 · Blue 2.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score60pts

Blue projected score258.4pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -198.4
Score range: 30–288
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 423 vs event baseline 164.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

210.9Season APEX435

24.5Auto44.3

17.8Teleop141.1

24.9Endgame61.8

0Consistency79

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	50
teleop	35	177
endgame	33	88
foul	0	30
total	78	345

Result

Final score

78 – 345

Prediction correct · off by 52.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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