Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

418.97 – 87.95

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

491 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 68.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 691 ±9.3

3476Code Orange

A+

Season APEX 325.1Event APEX 232.78Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4201The Vitruvian Bots

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 147.47Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5805SMbly Required

Season APEX 112.6Event APEX 38.72Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 218.3 ±12.2

6885The Pilots

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX -23.69Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3309Friarbots

Season APEX 90Event APEX 38.76Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3952Troy Robotics

Season APEX 79Event APEX 72.88Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3476, 4201, 5805

/ 100 compat

Projected

419 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3476, 4201, 5805

Auto

55.6 13%

Teleop

257.9 62%

Endgame

100.6 24%

Strengths

· 3476 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6885, 3309, 3952

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.9 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6885, 3309, 3952

Auto

10.7 12%

Teleop

62.5 70%

Endgame

16.4 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.71 · Blue 0.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score419pts

Blue projected score87.9pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 331
Score range: 59–448
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 644 vs event baseline 161.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

691Season APEX218.3

55.6Auto10.7

257.9Teleop62.5

100.6Endgame16.4

54Consistency92

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	107	44
teleop	249	61
endgame	120	28
foul	15	20
total	491	153

Result

Final score

491 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 68.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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