Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

216.04 – 188.21

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

197 – 170

Prediction correct · off by 18.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 406.3 ±11.2

4322Clockwork

Season APEX 220.5Event APEX 144.66Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6695GalvaKnights

Season APEX 133Event APEX 41.87Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3020SMbld

Season APEX 52.8Event APEX 29.51Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 361.1 ±13.9

115MVRT

Season APEX 146.7Event APEX 96.26Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4619HawkBots

Season APEX 79.4Event APEX 12.42Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 76

3408cyberCubs

Season APEX 135Event APEX 79.53Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4322, 6695, 3020

/ 100 compat

Projected

216 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4322, 6695, 3020

Auto

25.7 12%

Teleop

141.6 66%

Endgame

48.3 22%

Strengths

· 4322 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 115, 4619, 3408

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 115, 4619, 3408

Auto

22.3 12%

Teleop

115.2 64%

Endgame

42.9 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.83 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score216pts

Blue projected score188.2pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 27.8
Score range: 159–245
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 367 vs event baseline 160.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

406.3Season APEX361.1

25.7Auto22.3

141.6Teleop115.2

48.3Endgame42.9

69Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	4	13
teleop	120	124
endgame	68	33
foul	5	0
total	197	170

Result

Final score

197 – 170

Prediction correct · off by 18.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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