Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

254.54 – 440.91

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

260 – 482

Prediction correct · off by 23.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 334.7 ±11.7

4141Monarch Robotics

Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 45.05Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4322Clockwork

Season APEX 220.5Event APEX 150.97Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4276Surf City Vikings

Season APEX 44.1Event APEX 58.52Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 732.2 ±9.9

8891Wild Raccoons

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX -3.85Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4414HighTide

Season APEX 418.9Event APEX 347.34Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5199Robot Dolphins From Outer Space

Season APEX 275.7Event APEX 97.42Rank 4Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4141, 4322, 4276

/ 100 compat

Projected

254.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4141, 4322, 4276

Auto

38.9 16%

Teleop

136.4 55%

Endgame

72.5 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8891, 4414, 5199

/ 100 compat

Projected

440.9 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8891, 4414, 5199

Auto

96.7 22%

Teleop

234.2 54%

Endgame

105.4 24%

Strengths

· 4414 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.84 · Blue 2.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score254.5pts

Blue projected score440.9pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -186.4
Score range: 221–475
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 742 vs event baseline 190.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

334.7Season APEX732.2

38.9Auto96.7

136.4Teleop234.2

72.5Endgame105.4

41Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	117
teleop	131	224
endgame	73	141
foul	5	0
total	260	482

Result

Final score

260 – 482

Prediction correct · off by 23.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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