Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

197.37 – 198.29

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

163 – 188

Prediction correct · off by 22.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 253.2 ±11.6

4141Monarch Robotics

Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 74.08Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3408cyberCubs

Season APEX 135Event APEX 84.42Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7447Rōnin Robotics

Season APEX 48.1Event APEX 38.87Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 277 ±12.2

3952Troy Robotics

Season APEX 79Event APEX 73.63Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

115MVRT

Season APEX 146.7Event APEX 99.08Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4919Team Ronin

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 25.58Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4141, 3408, 7447

/ 100 compat

Projected

197.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4141, 3408, 7447

Auto

25.0 14%

Teleop

97.9 54%

Endgame

59.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3952, 115, 4919

/ 100 compat

Projected

198.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3952, 115, 4919

Auto

34.2 17%

Teleop

130.7 66%

Endgame

32.8 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score197.4pts

Blue projected score198.3pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -0.9
Score range: 169–226
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 351 vs event baseline 156.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

253.2Season APEX277

25Auto34.2

97.9Teleop130.7

59Endgame32.8

38Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	29
teleop	69	108
endgame	68	51
foul	5	0
total	163	188

Result

Final score

163 – 188

Prediction correct · off by 22.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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