Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

129.1 – 14.4

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

117 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 18.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 271 ±11.7

4276Surf City Vikings

Season APEX 44.1Event APEX 31.45Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5805SMbly Required

Season APEX 112.6Event APEX 34.79Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6220The Golden Griffins

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 62.86Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 208.5 ±12.8

2658Σ-Motion

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 14.6Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6885The Pilots

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX -21.01Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5835Sage Hill Robotics

Season APEX 56.5Event APEX 20.81Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4276, 5805, 6220

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.1 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4276, 5805, 6220

Auto

27.6 22%

Teleop

70.9 56%

Endgame

27.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2658, 6885, 5835

/ 100 compat

Projected

14.4 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2658, 6885, 5835

Auto

-7.0 0%

Teleop

25.2 91%

Endgame

9.5 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.16 · Blue 0.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score129.1pts

Blue projected score14.4pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 114.7
Score range: -15–158
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 157 vs event baseline 160.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

271Season APEX208.5

27.6Auto-7

70.9Teleop25.2

27.3Endgame9.5

44Consistency79

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	11
teleop	74	19
endgame	12	10
foul	15	0
total	117	40

Result

Final score

117 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 18.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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