Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 333.5

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

54 – 220

Prediction correct · off by 83.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 177.3 ±13.3

4919Team Ronin

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 23.31Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8521CyberLions

Season APEX 42.4Event APEX -41.78Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9271Cyber Porpoises

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 14.26Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 410.8 ±11.1

7447Rōnin Robotics

Season APEX 48.1Event APEX 50.16Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3476Code Orange

A+

Season APEX 325.1Event APEX 246.38Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8891Wild Raccoons

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX 36.96Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4919, 8521, 9271

/ 100 compat

Projected

-4.2 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4919, 8521, 9271

Auto

15.5 100%

Teleop

-9.6 0%

Endgame

-2.9 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7447, 3476, 8891

/ 100 compat

Projected

333.5 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 7447, 3476, 8891

Auto

50.5 16%

Teleop

201.9 62%

Endgame

70.7 22%

Strengths

· 3476 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.6 · Blue 2.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score-4.2pts

Blue projected score333.5pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -333.5
Score range: -29–363
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 274 vs event baseline 163.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

177.3Season APEX410.8

15.5Auto50.5

-9.6Teleop201.9

-2.9Endgame70.7

0Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	65
teleop	11	62
endgame	23	88
foul	0	5
total	54	220

Result

Final score

54 – 220

Prediction correct · off by 83.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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