Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

48.35 – 209.56

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

32 – 382

Prediction correct · off by 94.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 160.7 ±15.8

3295STEMdroids

Season APEX 54.8Event APEX -5.17Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

5500Jaguars Robotics & ROVs

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX -1.27Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5514MavBots

Season APEX 71.4Event APEX 54.79Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 553.2 ±13.1

4201The Vitruvian Bots

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 100.96Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4619HawkBots

Season APEX 79.4Event APEX 9.03Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 76

4322Clockwork

Season APEX 220.5Event APEX 99.57Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3295, 5500, 5514

/ 100 compat

Projected

48.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3295, 5500, 5514

Auto

20.9 51%

Teleop

13.4 33%

Endgame

6.3 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4201, 4619, 4322

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.6 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4201, 4619, 4322

Auto

35.6 17%

Teleop

118.5 57%

Endgame

52.1 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.82 · Blue 2.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score48.4pts

Blue projected score209.6pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -161.2
Score range: 19–239
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 414 vs event baseline 161.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

160.7Season APEX553.2

20.9Auto35.6

13.4Teleop118.5

6.3Endgame52.1

73Consistency126

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	46
teleop	17	242
endgame	3	94
foul	0	0
total	32	382

Result

Final score

32 – 382

Prediction correct · off by 94.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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