Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

223.85 – 119.04

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

214 – 112

Prediction correct · off by 8.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 416.9 ±11.2

6220The Golden Griffins

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 47.42Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4201The Vitruvian Bots

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 165.93Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6885The Pilots

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 10.5Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 229.7 ±14.4

4984Bullseye

Season APEX 42.5Event APEX 29.48Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10336BHA Tigers

Season APEX 43Event APEX 16.56Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

5137Iron Kodiaks

Season APEX 144.2Event APEX 73Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6220, 4201, 6885

/ 100 compat

Projected

223.9 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6220, 4201, 6885

Auto

27.1 13%

Teleop

129.1 61%

Endgame

56.7 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4984, 10336, 5137

/ 100 compat

Projected

119 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4984, 10336, 5137

Auto

27.3 23%

Teleop

60.9 51%

Endgame

31.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.22 · Blue 0.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score223.9pts

Blue projected score119pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 104.8
Score range: 85–258
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 326 vs event baseline 190.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

416.9Season APEX229.7

27.1Auto27.3

129.1Teleop60.9

56.7Endgame31.1

33Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	43
teleop	150	49
endgame	50	20
foul	0	0
total	214	112

Result

Final score

214 – 112

Prediction correct · off by 8.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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