Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

153.86 – 160.75

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

172 – 225

Prediction correct · off by 41.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 362 ±10.4

5805SMbly Required

Season APEX 112.6Event APEX 29.83Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2658Σ-Motion

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 22.36Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

115MVRT

Season APEX 146.7Event APEX 101.67Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 468.8 ±9.8

5199Robot Dolphins From Outer Space

Season APEX 275.7Event APEX 106.41Rank 4Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10586Unearthed

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX -14.61Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6220The Golden Griffins

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 68.95Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5805, 2658, 115

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5805, 2658, 115

Auto

25.9 16%

Teleop

104.5 66%

Endgame

28.3 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5199, 10586, 6220

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5199, 10586, 6220

Auto

41.3 24%

Teleop

87.4 50%

Endgame

45.2 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score153.9pts

Blue projected score160.8pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -6.9
Score range: 125–190
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 397 vs event baseline 160.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

362Season APEX468.8

25.9Auto41.3

104.5Teleop87.4

28.3Endgame45.2

100Consistency85

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	52
teleop	117	120
endgame	32	53
foul	0	0
total	172	225

Result

Final score

172 – 225

Prediction correct · off by 41.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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