Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

204.92 – 159.31

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

217 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 36.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 443.3 ±10.4

5137Iron Kodiaks

Season APEX 144.2Event APEX 40.76Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5474Clairemonster

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 58.39Rank 6Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3408cyberCubs

Season APEX 135Event APEX 105.77Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 251.1 ±12.2

5857Walnut Valley Robotics

Season APEX 67Event APEX 40.03Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4141Monarch Robotics

Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 92.84Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7157μBotics

Season APEX 114Event APEX 26.44Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5137, 5474, 3408

/ 100 compat

Projected

204.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5137, 5474, 3408

Auto

15.1 8%

Teleop

126.8 67%

Endgame

46.9 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5857, 4141, 7157

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5857, 4141, 7157

Auto

22.5 15%

Teleop

89.4 61%

Endgame

35.1 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.95 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score204.9pts

Blue projected score159.3pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 45.6
Score range: 130–234
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 315 vs event baseline 161.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

443.3Season APEX251.1

15.1Auto22.5

126.8Teleop89.4

46.9Endgame35.1

54Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	16
teleop	113	39
endgame	84	43
foul	0	0
total	217	98

Result

Final score

217 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 36.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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