Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

44.86 – 52.19

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

69 – 36

Prediction missed · off by 20.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 219.9 ±12.2

6885The Pilots

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX -25.32Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8891Wild Raccoons

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX 33.22Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6695GalvaKnights

Season APEX 133Event APEX 36.96Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 136.2 ±15.8

6072Triton Tech 6072

Season APEX 40.4Event APEX 18.6Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3020SMbld

Season APEX 52.8Event APEX 45.99Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

10336BHA Tigers

Season APEX 43Event APEX -12.4Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6885, 8891, 6695

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6885, 8891, 6695

Auto

7.2 13%

Teleop

43.3 80%

Endgame

3.6 7%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6072, 3020, 10336

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6072, 3020, 10336

Auto

26.9 68%

Teleop

18.6 47%

Endgame

-5.7 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.5 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score44.9pts

Blue projected score52.2pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -7.3
Score range: 15–82
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 105 vs event baseline 165.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

219.9Season APEX136.2

7.2Auto26.9

43.3Teleop18.6

3.6Endgame-5.7

80Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	11
teleop	49	9
endgame	6	16
foul	0	0
total	69	36

Result

Final score

69 – 36

Prediction missed · off by 20.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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