Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

306.58 – 138.57

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

500 – 334

Prediction correct · off by 194.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 620.4 ±13.5

3295STEMdroids

Season APEX 54.8Event APEX -58.08Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

115MVRT

Season APEX 146.7Event APEX 70.27Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4414HighTide

Season APEX 418.9Event APEX 294.39Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 410 ±11.7

4984Bullseye

Season APEX 42.5Event APEX 16.86Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8521CyberLions

Season APEX 42.4Event APEX -72.2Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3476Code Orange

A+

Season APEX 325.1Event APEX 193.91Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3295, 115, 4414

/ 100 compat

Projected

306.6 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3295, 115, 4414

Auto

51.7 18%

Teleop

159.6 55%

Endgame

76.6 27%

Strengths

· 4414 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4984, 8521, 3476

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4984, 8521, 3476

Auto

3.1 2%

Teleop

115.9 77%

Endgame

31.2 21%

Strengths

· 3476 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.6 · Blue 0.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score306.6pts

Blue projected score138.6pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 168
Score range: 111–335
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 834 vs event baseline 155.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

620.4Season APEX410

51.7Auto3.1

159.6Teleop115.9

76.6Endgame31.2

124Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	99	68
teleop	281	168
endgame	105	98
foul	15	0
total	500	334

Result

Final score

500 – 334

Prediction correct · off by 194.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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