Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

250.22 – 172.67

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

213 – 152

Prediction correct · off by 28.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 372.8 ±11.7

4201The Vitruvian Bots

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 118.72Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7447Rōnin Robotics

Season APEX 48.1Event APEX 73.97Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5514MavBots

Season APEX 71.4Event APEX 57.53Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 304.1 ±11.7

5835Sage Hill Robotics

Season APEX 56.5Event APEX 10.67Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3408cyberCubs

Season APEX 135Event APEX 148.81Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5805SMbly Required

Season APEX 112.6Event APEX 13.19Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4201, 7447, 5514

/ 100 compat

Projected

250.2 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4201, 7447, 5514

Auto

24.0 10%

Teleop

167.1 67%

Endgame

60.0 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX
· Low variance, consistent output

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5835, 3408, 5805

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5835, 3408, 5805

Auto

27.7 19%

Teleop

88.5 61%

Endgame

29.4 20%

Strengths

· 3408 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.05 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score250.2pts

Blue projected score172.7pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 77.6
Score range: 146–277
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 365 vs event baseline 151.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

372.8Season APEX304.1

24Auto27.7

167.1Teleop88.5

60Endgame29.4

237Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	17
teleop	119	82
endgame	36	53
foul	30	0
total	213	152

Result

Final score

213 – 152

Prediction correct · off by 28.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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